ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003 CLAUDETTE MAY HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE AT 1530Z. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT...AND AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE INDICATED SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. TWO HOURS LATER...THE PLANE FOUND A FRAGMENTED WINDFIELD NEAR THE DECAYED EYEWALL...WITH WINDS LOWER AND PRESSURES HIGHER THAN MEASURED ON THE PREVIOUS PASS. WHILE THE PLANE REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...IT DID NOT GET A GOOD CENTER FIX AND THE INITIAL WIND AND PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 60 KT AND 993 MB UNTIL THE NEXT PLANE ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THESE ARE LIKELY GENEROUS ESTIMATES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT... SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT AN EXPOSED CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBLE RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/12. OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD...THE SAME AS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. CLAUDETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...AND SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT 120 HR THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BETWEEN THE GFDL LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS AND THE UKMET LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN THE THREAT AREA. WHILE CLAUDETTE HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING THEOUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE STORM. LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 96 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...ALBEIT LESS THAN FORECAST EARLIER. THIS STRENGTHENING MAY VERY WELL COME IN BURSTS AS SEEN THIS MORNING. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 18.6N 84.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 19.9N 85.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 21.6N 87.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 23.1N 89.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 24.2N 91.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 25.5N 93.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 26.0N 95.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 70 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC