Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003
 
CLAUDETTE MAY HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE AT 1530Z.  THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT...AND AN EYEWALL
DROPSONDE INDICATED SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
TWO HOURS LATER...THE PLANE FOUND A FRAGMENTED WINDFIELD NEAR THE
DECAYED EYEWALL...WITH WINDS LOWER AND PRESSURES HIGHER THAN
MEASURED ON THE PREVIOUS PASS.  WHILE THE PLANE REPORTED A PRESSURE
OF 1005 MB...IT DID NOT GET A GOOD CENTER FIX AND THE INITIAL WIND
AND PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 60 KT AND 993 MB UNTIL THE NEXT PLANE
ARRIVES.  HOWEVER...THESE ARE LIKELY GENEROUS ESTIMATES.  IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT... SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT
AN EXPOSED CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBLE
RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/12.  OTHER THAN
THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD...THE
SAME AS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  CLAUDETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.  SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...AND SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR
BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT 120
HR THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BETWEEN THE GFDL
LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS AND THE UKMET LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN THE THREAT AREA.
 
WHILE CLAUDETTE HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THERE IS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING THEOUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE STORM. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 96 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING...ALBEIT LESS THAN FORECAST EARLIER.  THIS
STRENGTHENING MAY VERY WELL COME IN BURSTS AS SEEN THIS MORNING.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 18.6N  84.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 19.9N  85.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 21.6N  87.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 23.1N  89.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 24.2N  91.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 25.5N  93.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 26.0N  95.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     15/1800Z 26.0N  97.5W    70 KT...INLAND
 
 
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