ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003 CLAUDETTE HAS RE-ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 10 NM WIDE EYE AND A 988 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1201Z SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 69 KT AT 700 MB AND A SOMEWHAT SUSPECT 78 KT AT 850 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. THAT BEING SAID...THIS STRENGTHENING MAY HAVE BEEN A SHORT TERM BURST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE SECOND PASS OF THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE PRESSURE RISING TO 993 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LIKELY REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 300/14. OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS A BROKEN RECORD...THE SAME AS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. CLAUDETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION... AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...CLAUDETTE REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN THEY ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK IN DOING SO. CLAUDETTE SHOULD STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL AS THE ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES...ALTHOUGH IT MAY DO SO IN A RATHER UNSTEADY FASHION. CLAUDETTE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND...THEN RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO. UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED FOR THE 3-5 DAY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGEST THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE MAY WEAKEN BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 17.8N 83.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 85.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 20.7N 87.6W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 12/0000Z 22.3N 89.9W 45 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 12/1200Z 23.5N 91.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 25.0N 93.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 25.5N 95.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 15/1200Z 26.0N 97.5W 70 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC