Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003
 
CLAUDETTE HAS RE-ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 10 NM WIDE EYE AND A 988 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1201Z SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 69 KT AT 700 MB AND A
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT 78 KT AT 850 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.  THAT BEING SAID...THIS STRENGTHENING
MAY HAVE BEEN A SHORT TERM BURST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE SECOND PASS OF
THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE PRESSURE RISING TO 993 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LIKELY REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 300/14.  OTHER THAN THAT...THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS A BROKEN RECORD...THE SAME AS FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS.  CLAUDETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR 48-72 HR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN SLOW
AND TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. 
SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...
AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. 

ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY...CLAUDETTE REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE...ALTHOUGH
AGAIN THEY ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK IN DOING SO.  CLAUDETTE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL AS THE ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY DO SO IN A RATHER UNSTEADY FASHION.  CLAUDETTE SHOULD WEAKEN
WHILE OVER LAND...THEN RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO. 
UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED FOR THE 3-5 DAY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST...AS THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGEST THE LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE MAY WEAKEN BY THAT TIME. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT
TIME.

 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 17.8N  83.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N  85.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.7N  87.6W    80 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 22.3N  89.9W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N  91.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  93.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 25.5N  95.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 26.0N  97.5W    70 KT...INLAND
 
 
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