ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BREAKS DOWN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...CLAUDETTE SHOULD BE DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS SHOW A THREAT TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 57 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. A RATHER LARGE AND COLD BUT DISTORTED CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE FOR 5 DAYS AND THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN WIND SPEED DURING THIS TIME. IN CONTRAST THE GFDL MODEL AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 82 KNOTS BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AGAIN MODEST STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON DAY 3 THROUGH DAY 5. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 16.8N 82.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 17.8N 84.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 19.5N 87.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 21.5N 89.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 23.3N 91.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 24.5N 93.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 25.5N 94.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 15/0600Z 26.5N 96.5W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC