Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWING
OF FORWARD SPEED AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
BREAKS DOWN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...CLAUDETTE SHOULD BE DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS SHOW A
THREAT TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 57 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A
996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  A RATHER LARGE AND COLD BUT DISTORTED CDO
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE FOR 5 DAYS AND THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH CHANGE IN WIND SPEED DURING THIS TIME.  IN CONTRAST THE GFDL
MODEL AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 82 KNOTS BY DAY 4.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND CALLS FOR SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AGAIN MODEST
STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON DAY 3 THROUGH
DAY 5.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 16.8N  82.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.8N  84.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N  87.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 21.5N  89.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 23.3N  91.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 24.5N  93.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 25.5N  94.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 26.5N  96.5W    60 KT
 
 
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