ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003 BILL STILL LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS THE BEST IT HAS LOOKED DURING THE RELATIVELY SHORT LIFETIME OF THIS CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 35 KT SUSTAINED WIND REPORT AT KGPT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 50 TO 60 KT JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AS NOTED N THE SLIDELL/KLIX RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/09. BILL HAS BEEN TRACKING STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS AT A MUCH SLOWER SPEED THAN IT WAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS NHC FORECAST MODELS CONCERNING THE TRACK DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS BEING THE FASTEST. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND HAVE THE REMNANTS OF BILL NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTS IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN 36 TO 48 HOURS BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LINK UP WITH A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MUCH SLOWER AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODEL SOLUTIONS. NOW THAT BILL IS WELL INLAND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EVEN POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS MOBILE BAY FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. WHILE BILL MAY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY INLAND FRESH FLOODING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 30.8N 90.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 32.5N 89.3W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 02/0000Z 34.3N 87.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 02/1200Z 35.7N 85.1W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/0000Z 36.8N 82.2W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/0000Z 37.5N 78.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC