Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BILL


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003
 
BILL STILL LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS THE BEST IT HAS LOOKED
DURING THE RELATIVELY SHORT LIFETIME OF THIS CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 35 KT SUSTAINED WIND REPORT AT
KGPT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 50 TO 60 KT JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE AS NOTED N THE SLIDELL/KLIX RADAR IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/09. BILL HAS BEEN TRACKING
STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS AT A MUCH SLOWER
SPEED THAN IT WAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONVERGENCE
AMONG THE VARIOUS NHC FORECAST MODELS CONCERNING THE TRACK
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS BEING THE FASTEST. BOTH OF THOSE
MODELS MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AND HAVE THE REMNANTS OF BILL NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY COASTS IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN 36 TO 48 HOURS BILL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LINK UP WITH A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
MUCH SLOWER AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODEL SOLUTIONS.
 
NOW THAT BILL IS WELL INLAND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL
SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EVEN
POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS MOBILE BAY FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  WHILE
BILL MAY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE CYCLONE IS
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE.
IN ADDITION...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM
TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY INLAND FRESH
FLOODING.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 30.8N  90.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  89.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 34.3N  87.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 35.7N  85.1W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 36.8N  82.2W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 37.5N  78.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC