Tropical Storm BILL

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TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003
 
BILL STILL LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS THE BEST IT HAS LOOKED
DURING THE RELATIVELY SHORT LIFETIME OF THIS CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 35 KT SUSTAINED WIND REPORT AT
KGPT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 50 TO 60 KT JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE AS NOTED N THE SLIDELL/KLIX RADAR IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/09. BILL HAS BEEN TRACKING
STEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS AT A MUCH SLOWER
SPEED THAN IT WAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONVERGENCE
AMONG THE VARIOUS NHC FORECAST MODELS CONCERNING THE TRACK
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS BEING THE FASTEST. BOTH OF THOSE
MODELS MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AND HAVE THE REMNANTS OF BILL NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY COASTS IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN 36 TO 48 HOURS BILL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LINK UP WITH A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
MUCH SLOWER AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODEL SOLUTIONS.
 
NOW THAT BILL IS WELL INLAND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL
SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EVEN
POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS MOBILE BAY FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  WHILE
BILL MAY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE CYCLONE IS
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE.
IN ADDITION...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM
TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY INLAND FRESH
FLOODING.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 30.8N  90.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  89.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 34.3N  87.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 35.7N  85.1W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 36.8N  82.2W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 37.5N  78.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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