Tropical Storm BILL

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TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/12.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
IN 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER THE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT
TURNING THE REMNANT LOW OVER LAND TOWARD THE EAST AS THE STORM
ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES.  THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
A RECENT RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 1001 MB.  THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO
50 KNOTS BASED ON A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 66 KNOTS SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE WIND SPEED CAN STILL INCREASE DURING THE
SEVERAL HOURS REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OR THE FORECAST
TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
CAN BE EXPERIENCED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 28.8N  91.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 30.5N  91.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 32.7N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 34.6N  88.7W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 36.0N  86.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  80.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     04/1200Z...INLAND
 
 
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