ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED. THIS MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT TURNING THE STORM NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHIFTS THE TRACKS EASTWARD ABOUT 100 N MI FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO SHIFTING THE INITIAL POSITION EASTWARD. THIS ALSO REQUIRES AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE WATCH AREA WHICH WILL ALSO BE CHANGED TO A WARNING. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB...NOT VERY LOW...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE STORM IS LARGE. A 15Z SHIP REPORT OF 40 KNOTS ABOUT 80 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ...ALONG WITH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS...IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 40 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 62 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. IN CONTRAST NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING. ALSO THE PRESENT DEEP CONVECTION PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE 55 KNOTS AT 24 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.8N 91.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 26.4N 91.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 28.5N 92.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 30.5N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/1800Z 33.0N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 03/1800Z...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC