ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FORMED OVERNIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR A SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIP H3GQ REPORTED 38 KNOTS IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AT 12Z. THE SHIP IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WITH THE CONVECTION AND STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER...THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL...BUT SINCE THE ORIGINS OF THE WEATHER WERE TROPICAL...A TROPICAL DESIGNATION IS USED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/14 ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS NO GOOD HISTORY TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TURNING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAT THE 14 KNOTS USED FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE SHIP REPORT MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BACKS OFF A LITTLE TO 50 KNOTS SINCE NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANY STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 23.5N 91.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.9N 92.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 26.8N 93.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 28.7N 94.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 30.2N 94.2W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/1200Z 31.3N 93.3W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 03/1200Z 32.3N 90.8W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC