Tropical Depression TWO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOSING ITS BATTLE WITH CLIMATOLOGY.  IN
FACT...IT PROBABLY HAS ALREADY LOST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE NO
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  WHAT PASSES FOR A SURFACE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS DISPLACED ABOUT 85 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER.  HOWEVER...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SYSTEM FOR A BIT
UNTIL WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT A CIRCULATION IS NOT GOING TO
REDEVELOP.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17.  IN ITS CURRENT STATE OF
DISORGANIZATION...AND UNLESS THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE ONLY A LIMITED INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 50 W.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND SHALLOW
LAYER BAM MODELS.   

WITH THE DEPRESSION TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO STAY IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...ITS
SMALL SIZE...LOW LATITUDE...AND RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT MAKES
THE SYSTEM QUITE VULNERABLE TO THE SHEAR THAT IS PRESENT.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER ANTICIPATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL GUIDANCE.  DISSIPATION IS LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST POINTS ARE BEING PROVIDED OUT TO 72 HOURS IN THE EVENT THE
SYSTEM HANGS TOGETHER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z  9.8N  46.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.0N  49.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 10.4N  52.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 11.0N  55.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 11.5N  59.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 12.5N  65.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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