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Tropical Depression TWO (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2003
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT...WHILE AFWA IS AT 30
KT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS WAS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER THE
CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...OR EVEN WHETHER THE
DEPRESSION HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT
UNCERTAINTIES AND LACK OF CONVECTION THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT A DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND BEGINS TO
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION
AFTER 96 HOURS BUT THIS MIGHT OCCUR WELL BEFORE THEN. SHOULD THE
SYSTEM STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WOULD FIND
ITSELF IN A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE SOMEWHAT
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR STRENGTHENING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/17. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE NCEP
GFS...SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 50W LONGITUDE. AS A
RESULT...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AND
THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH THESE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES DEPENDS ON
HOW DEEP A CIRCULATION THE CYCLONE CAN MAINTAIN.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS ALSO A BIT FASTER.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z  9.8N  44.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 10.2N  47.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 11.0N  50.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 11.7N  52.8W    30 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 12.5N  55.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 14.0N  60.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 15.5N  64.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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