ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED APR 23 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IT IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE THE CIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OF ANA FROM THE NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS OF 35 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CENTER PRIMARILY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. IF THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL BY NOW...IT SHOULD BECOME ONE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS FROM THE CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION PROVIDED BY PENN STATE UNIVERSITY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER COLD WATER AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. A FEW CELLS OF CONVECTION MAY STILL RE-DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ANA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 80 DEGREES ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES. ON THE LONGER RANGE...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT EXTRATROPICAL ANA TOWARD THE EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR THE AZORES. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE EARLY SEASON TROPICAL STORM ANA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 32.3N 48.9W 35 KTS 12HR VT 24/1200Z 32.5N 47.0W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/0000Z 33.0N 44.5W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 41.0W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/0000Z 34.0N 37.5W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/0000Z 36.5N 27.5W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC