ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED APR 23 2003 THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF ANA NO LONGER LOOKS TROPICAL. ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND HAS NO CURVATURE. THIS CLOUDINESS APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME PART OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANA WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REAPPEAR. SATELLITE BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BELOW 35 KT WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NO BANDING. A 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT ALSO SHOWED NO WINDS ABOVE 30 KT. HOWEVER THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KT BASED ON A 03Z SHIP REPORT OF 41 KT LOCATED ABOUT 110 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A NEAR-STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM FOR 72 HOURS FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/16 BASED ON A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER THAT IS POORLY DEFINED AND THE PAST 12 HOUR MOTION. ANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EASTWARD TRACK...ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRAJECTORY...BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 31.7N 50.3W 40 KTS 12HR VT 24/0000Z 32.4N 48.3W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/1200Z 32.9N 45.5W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/0000Z 33.4N 43.1W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 40.0W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1200Z 34.5N 34.5W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC