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Tropical Storm ANA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED APR 23 2003
 
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF ANA NO LONGER LOOKS TROPICAL.
 ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER AND HAS NO CURVATURE.  THIS CLOUDINESS APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
PART OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANA WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL
LATER TODAY...IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REAPPEAR.
 
SATELLITE BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BELOW 35 KT WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NO BANDING.  A 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
LAST NIGHT ALSO SHOWED NO WINDS ABOVE 30 KT.  HOWEVER THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KT BASED ON A 03Z SHIP REPORT OF 41 KT
LOCATED ABOUT 110 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN A NEAR-STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM FOR 72 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE AZORES IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/16 BASED ON A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CENTER THAT IS POORLY DEFINED AND THE PAST 12 HOUR MOTION.  ANA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EASTWARD
TRACK...ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRAJECTORY...BUT
CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 31.7N  50.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 32.4N  48.3W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     24/1200Z 32.9N  45.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     25/0000Z 33.4N  43.1W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     25/1200Z 33.5N  40.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     26/1200Z 34.5N  34.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC