ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2003 EVEN THOUGH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PERSISTS OVER ANA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS UNDER 40 KT SHEAR WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON TO A 40 TO 45 KT STORM. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT ANA WILL MERGE WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FORECAST OF SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/15. ANA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY CURRENT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 HOURS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANA WILL AFFECT THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE 34-KT WIND SPEED RADII ARE INCREASED TO 200 N MI IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON SHIP REPORTS. THESE RADII ARE REDUCED TO A SMALLER 150 N MI IN 36 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 55.7W 45 KTS 12HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 53.2W 45 KTS 24HR VT 23/1800Z 31.5N 49.8W 40 KTS 36HR VT 24/0600Z 31.9N 46.7W 40 KTS 48HR VT 24/1800Z 32.1N 44.3W 40 KTS 72HR VT 25/1800Z 32.5N 38.0W 35 KTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC