Tropical Storm ANA

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TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2003
 
EVEN THOUGH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PERSISTS OVER ANA...THE INITIAL 
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DISSIPATION 
BY 72 HOURS UNDER 40 KT SHEAR WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON 
TO A 40 TO 45 KT STORM.  THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT ANA WILL MERGE 
WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 
72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
WITH A FORECAST OF SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/15.  ANA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY 
CURRENT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 
HOURS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.  IT IS POSSIBLE 
THAT ANA WILL AFFECT THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN 4 OR 5 
DAYS.
 
THE 34-KT WIND SPEED RADII ARE INCREASED TO 200 N MI IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON SHIP REPORTS.  THESE RADII ARE REDUCED TO A 
SMALLER 150 N MI IN 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 29.8N  55.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  53.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  49.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 31.9N  46.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 32.1N  44.3W    40 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 32.5N  38.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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