Tropical Storm ANA
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON APR 21 2003
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 105/14. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
ACCELERATING EAST TO EAST NORTH-EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
IS SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND ST2.5 FROM SAB. A
1023Z QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED 35 KT WIND SPEEDS NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SHEAR
WEAKENING THE STORM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY
AS EARLIER. THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY SEPARATED
FROM THE LARGER CLOUD SYSTEM THAT IT WAS EARLIER CONNECTED TO...AND
IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT ANA HAS BECOME TROPICAL. THE DEMARCATION
BETWEEN TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL IS A BIT MURKY AND I WILL LEAVE ANA
AS SUBTROPICAL FOR THE TIME BEING.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 62.4W 35 KTS
12HR VT 22/0600Z 29.4N 59.9W 30 KTS
24HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 56.6W 30 KTS
36HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 53.0W 30 KTS
48HR VT 23/1800Z 31.0N 49.0W 30 KTS
72HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 42.0W 25 KTS
NNNN