ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON APR 21 2003 THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SHEARED FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT ...BUT THERE IS STILL A SMALL ARE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. LATEST TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5 AND 2.5 SUBTROPICAL AND RECENT SSMI WIND ESTIMATES WERE NEAR 35 KNOTS...SO ANA IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALL GUIDANCE IS FOR WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/10. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITLE TO THE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.8N 64.2W 35 KTS 12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.5N 62.4W 30 KTS 24HR VT 22/1200Z 29.3N 59.6W 30 KTS 36HR VT 23/0000Z 29.6N 56.1W 30 KTS 48HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 53.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 47.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC