000
ABNT30 KNHC 010319
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EST SAT NOV 30 2002
SUMMARY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OF 2002...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TWELVE NAMED STORMS FORMED THIS SEASON AND FOUR OF THESE BECAME
HURRICANES. TWO STRENGTHENED INTO MAJOR HURRICANES...CATEGORY THREE
OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE LONG-TERM
AVERAGES ARE TEN...SIX...AND TWO RESPECTIVELY. EIGHT NAMED STORMS
FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...THE HIGHEST NUMBER ON RECORD
FOR ANY MONTH. THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON FORMED ON 11
SEPTEMBER...THE LATEST DATE FOR THIS EVENT SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1944. SEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONES MADE LANDFALL IN THE U.S.
AND AN EIGHTH MADE AN INDIRECT HIT. LILI WAS THE FIRST HURRICANE TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE U.S. SINCE IRENE OF 1999.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORMED NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
14 JULY. IT REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 MPH AS IT ACCELERATED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON THE
16TH. ARTHUR LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THE NEXT DAY WHILE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
BERTHA FORMED JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON 4
AUGUST. IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AS A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON THE 5TH...AND SOON WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION MEANDERED OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA ON THE 6TH...THEN MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON THE 7TH. BERTHA MOVED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ON THE
9TH AS A DEPRESSION AND DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER THAT DAY.
BERTHA CAUSED ONE DEATH...A DROWNING IN HIGH SURF IN THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI PRODUCED MINOR
FLOOD DAMAGE.
CRISTOBAL WAS A RELATIVELY WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT MEANDERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT FORMED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ON 5 AUGUST WITHIN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WAS THE SAME TROUGH THAT HAD SPAWNED
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA A DAY EARLIER. CRISTOBAL REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 MPH EARLY ON THE 8TH BUT LATER THAT DAY BECAME
ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE.
DOLLY FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE EARLY ON 29 AUGUST AT A LOW
LATITUDE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. IT MOVED WESTWARD AND BECAME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY. THE STORM'S WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED
60 MPH ON 30 AUGUST AS IT MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. DOLLY THEN
TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATERS. THE SYSTEM WAS
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL TROUGH ON 5 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 700 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
EDOUARD DEVELOPED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA ON 1
SEPTEMBER. IT MOVED IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. EDOUARD STRENGTHENED TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
65 MPH ON THE 3RD BUT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOON WEAKENED THE
STORM AS IT HEADED FOR THE COAST. EDOUARD WAS BARELY OF TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR ORMOND BEACH FLORIDA ON
THE 4TH. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION AND CROSSED
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. PERSISTENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT PREVENTED
ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION...AND EDOUARD DISSIPATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO ON THE 6TH. ITS REMNANTS WERE ENTRAINED INTO THE
LARGE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS
COAST. EDOUARD CAUSED SOME FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
FAY ORIGINATED FROM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 5 SEPTEMBER ABOUT
100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. IT STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY. FAY MOVED LITTLE WHILE STRENGTHENING
TO 60 MPH WINDS. LATE ON THE 6TH THE STORM BEGAN MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AND THE CENTER MOVED INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST
NEAR PALACIOS EARLY ON THE 7TH. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISSIPATED SOON AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...THE REMNANT LOW MEANDERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS
THE REGION.
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON 7 SEPTEMBER...AND DISSIPATED ABOUT 950 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA THE FOLLOWING DAY.
GUSTAV DEVELOPED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 8 SEPTEMBER ABOUT
550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IT MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD AND QUICKLY BECAME A SUBTROPICAL STORM. GUSTAV
CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD ON THE 9TH...THEN TURNED NORTHWARD ON THE
10TH. THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONED TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE CENTER
PASSED JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THAT DAY. GUSTAV TURNED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON THE 11TH AND STRENGTHENED
INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. MAXIMUM WINDS REACHED 100
MPH BEFORE GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON THE
12TH. THE SYSTEM BECAME EXTRATROPICAL LATER THAT DAY NEAR WESTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. GUSTAV PRODUCED HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN
PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN
THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE STORM CAUSED ONE DEATH DUE
TO HIGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM WAS MINOR.
HANNA DEVELOPED FROM A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED
FROM THE DISTURBANCE LATE ON 11 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 240 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION MEANDERED
SLOWLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON THE 13TH
ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. HANNA THEN
MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD...PASSING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY ON THE 14TH. IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE
ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AROUND MIDDAY ON THE 14TH WITH 50 MPH
WINDS. HANNA GENERATED RIP CURRENTS RESPONSIBLE FOR THREE DEATHS
OFF THE BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMNANTS OF HANNA
PRODUCED MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF RAIN AT DONALSONVILLE GEORGIA.
HURRICANE ISIDORE FORMED FROM A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND
BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT WAS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON 14 SEPTEMBER. AFTER WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL WAVE...IT
REFORMED NEAR JAMAICA ON THE 17TH AND BECAME A HURRICANE OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE 19TH. ISIDORE HIT WESTERN CUBA ON
THE 20TH AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THE HURRICANE STRENGTHENED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
AND TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD...HITTING THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA JUST EAST OF PROGRESO WITH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON 22
SEPTEMBER. IT WEAKENED OVER LAND AND THEN MOVED NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...MAKING LANDFALL ON THE LOUISIANA COAST JUST WEST OF
GRAND ISLE AS A 70 MPH TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON THE 26TH. ISIDORE
BROUGHT TORRENTIAL RAIN TO JAMAICA AND CAUSED DAMAGE TO WESTERN
CUBA...NORTHERN YUCATAN AND PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL AREAS. FOUR PEOPLE DROWNED IN THE U.S. DUE TO ISIDORE.
JOSEPHINE WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM THAT FORMED WITHIN AN OLD
FRONTAL ZONE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON 17
SEPTEMBER. IT QUICKLY BECAME A TROPICAL STORM...AND MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD. JOSEPHINE WAS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM UNTIL THE
19TH. A LITTLE LATER THAT DAY IT MERGED WITH A COLD FRONT AND
ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.
KYLE LASTED FOR 22 DAYS...MAKING IT THE THIRD LONGEST-LIVED
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER GINGER OF 1971 AND INGA OF 1969.
KYLE STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM FOUR SEPARATE TIMES. IT
DEVELOPED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT 820 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA ON 20 SEPTEMBER. AFTER MOVING IN A LOOP FOR A FEW DAYS...IT
MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENED INTO AN 85-MPH HURRICANE
ON THE 26TH. KYLE BEGAN WEAKENING ON THE 27TH AND BY OCTOBER 1ST...
IT WAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA. MOVING ERRATICALLY...KYLE RE-INTENSIFIED TO A 65-MPH
TROPICAL STORM ON 2 OCTOBER. KYLE THEN MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON THE 5TH. THE
DEPRESSION MEANDERED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE REGAINING
TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THE 6TH. KYLE BEGAN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AND AGAIN WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION ON THE 8TH. A DAY LATER THE
SYSTEM TURNED WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...BUT AS KYLE APPROACHED LAND
IT CURVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...PARALLELING THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST. IT RESTRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM JUST TO THE EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE EARLY ON THE 11TH. KYLE SOON TURNED NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD AND MADE LANDFALL THAT AFTERNOON NEAR MCLELLANVILLE
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 45 MPH. KYLE CONTINUED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND PASSED NEAR
CAPE HATTERAS EARLY ON THE 12TH. IT BECAME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
THE LONG TRACK OF HURRICANE LILI BEGAN ON SEPTEMBER 21TH WHEN A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LILI MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON THE 23RD AS A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM AND LEFT FOUR
DEAD IN ST. VINCENT FROM MUD SLIDES. THE TROPICAL STORM WEAKENED TO
A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE 25TH AND 26TH AS IT MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS
ON THE 27TH...LILI TOOK A SLOW JOG AROUND THE NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA
ON THE 28TH TO THE 30TH AND DUMPED HEAVY RAIN THERE AS WELL AS OVER
SOUTHERN HAITI AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...EASTERN CUBA. THERE WERE
FOUR FLOOD-RELATED DEATHS IN JAMAICA. LILI STRENGTHENED INTO A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT HIT WESTERN CUBA ON 1 OCTOBER...JUST
ELEVEN DAYS AFTER HURRICANE ISIDORE STRUCK THE SAME AREA. LILI THEN
MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT QUICKLY STRENGTHENED TO 145
MPH...CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...ON THE 2ND. ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS IT
STRENGTHENED...LILI RAPIDLY LOST STRENGTH AND MADE LANDFALL AS A
BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE SOUTH OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA ON THE 3RD. LILI MERGED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON 4 OCTOBER. THE U.S. DAMAGE
ESTIMATE OF $800 MILLION DOLLARS WILL BE SHORTLY UPDATED WITH LATER
INSURANCE CLAIM INFORMATION.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORMED ON OCTOBER 14 FROM A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. INITIALLY
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...THE DEPRESSION TURNED SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
LATER THAT DAY. THE CENTER PASSED WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON
THE 15TH...THEN REACHED THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS IT
MERGED WITH A COLD FRONT ON THE 16TH. WHILE THE DEPRESSION BROUGHT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE OR CASUALTIES.
PRELIMINARY SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES WIND-MPH DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE
----------- -------------- -------- ------ -----------
TS ARTHUR 14-16 JUL 60
TS BERTHA 4-9 AUG 40 1 MINOR
TS CRISTOBAL 5-8 AUG 50
TS DOLLY 29 AUG-4 SEP 60
TS EDOUARD 1-6 SEP 65 MINOR
TS FAY 5-7 SEP 60
TD SEVEN 7-8 SEP 35
H GUSTAV 8-12 SEP 100 1 MINOR
TS HANNA 11-14 SEP 50 3 MINOR
H ISIDORE 14-26 SEP 125 4 $200,000,000
TS JOSEPHINE 17-19 SEP 40
H KYLE 20 SEP-12 OCT 85 MINOR
H LILI 21 SEP-4 OCT 145 8 $800,000,000
TD FOURTEEN 14-16 OCT 35
FORECASTERS AVILA/BEVEN/FRANKLIN/LAWRENCE/PASCH/STEWART
Problems?
![[NCEP Logo]](/graphics/ncep.gif){kind=small}