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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2002

...DEPRESSION REFORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIEGO DE AVILA.
SOME OR ALL OF THE WARNING AREA FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
IN THE BAHAMAS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...ELEUTHERA...NEW
PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS REFORMED NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 30 
MILES...45 KM...SOUTH OF CIENFUEGOS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM AND 
WILL PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE CENTER LOCATION.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. 
HOWEVER...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO 
UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT 
OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 80.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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