HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA FOR WESTERN CUBA MAY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
 
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST 
OF GRAND CAYMAN OR 200 MILES...325 KM SOUTHWEST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A 
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED 
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS 
POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
STORM BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL CUBA.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE 
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
  
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.7 N... 82.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA 
 
NNNN