HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST
FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 8 PM EDT THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL 
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF 
ANDROS...BIMINI...BERRY...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA 
AND THE ABACOS.
 
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM...SOUTHWEST OF 
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...
SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...  55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.  AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
THE DEPRESSION TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR 
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE POSSIBLE OVER CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N...  83.2 W.  MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...  35 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/BLAKE
 
 
NNNN