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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...
CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.0 WEST 
OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS 
IS ALSO ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... 
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR EARLY 
TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL 
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE MORE DETAILED 
INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR 
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE POSSIBLE OVER CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N... 83.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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