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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
12 NOON CDT THU OCT 03 2002

...LILI PRODUCED A 92 MPH GUST IN NEW IBERIA... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
THE COASTAL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED IN THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS.
 
AT 12 NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED BY 
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  92.3 WEST OR ABOUT 30 
MILES...WEST-NORTHWEST OF NEW IBERIA.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH AND ARE 
CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE 
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 195 MILES.

AS LILI MOVES OVER LAND...PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE ARE
CAUTIONED NOT TO VENTURE OUTSIDE DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE
EYE...BECAUSE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUDDENLY FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.51 INCHES.
 
THE STORM SURGE IS PROBABLY AT A MAXIMUM...6 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL 
TIDE LEVELS...AT THIS TIME. THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 10 TO 
20 MILES INLAND ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE PATH OF LILI. SURGE 
LEVELS WILL BE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

REPEATING THE 12 NOON CDT POSITION...30.2 N... 92.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
HURRICANE 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM 
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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