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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  48A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
6 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2002

...LILI WEAKENING BUT STILL DANGEROUS...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
LATER THIS MORNING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
AT 6 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...  LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH
OF NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND A TURN 
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SOON.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER 
WILL REACH THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES.  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 50
TO 100 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI.  HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...IN GUSTS...HAVE BEEN SPREADING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

AS LILI MOVES OVER LAND...PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE ARE
CAUTIONED NOT TO VENTURE OUTSIDE DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE
EYE...BECAUSE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUDDENLY FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF  960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

A POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST.  THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 20 MILES INLAND ACROSS
THE LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
TRACK.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH 
OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN 
MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

REPEATING THE 6 AM CDT POSITION...29.0 N... 91.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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