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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  46A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2002

...LILI REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...DEADLY 10 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE APPROACHING THE COAST...
...FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED  
   TO COMPLETION NOW...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 220
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH ISLAND ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RESEARCH HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
AT LEAST 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MEANS THAT LILI IS STILL 
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LILI IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD 
INLAND UP TO 150 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI.  DURING 
THE PAST FEW HOURS...NOAA BUOY 42001 IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO   
REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 150 MPH. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS ARE SPREADING ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 
PORT FOURCHON EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER  
AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

A POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST.  THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 25 MILES INLAND ACROSS
THE LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
TRACK.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TRACK OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.6 N... 90.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 PM CDT. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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