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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  42A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2002

...LILI STRENGTHENING...ALMOST A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
UNITED STATES WATCH AREA THIS MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
AT 2 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 480 MILES...  775
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LILI IS A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND LILI COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE 
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO  958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA TODAY.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...  WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...23.6 N... 87.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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