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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  41A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002

...LILI CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST 
FROM SAN LOUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  A 
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH 
AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS 
AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL 
WARNINGS FOR CUBA. 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 
145 KM...NORTH OF CABO SAN ANTONIO CUBA.  THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 560 
MILES...905 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND 
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER FARTHER AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA 
AND INTO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES LILI A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 
HURRICANE SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM.  SOME SQUALLS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER 
AIRCRAFT IS  968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE WESTERN COASTS OF CUBA SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED 
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT.  THESE 
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES 
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES... 
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...23.0 N... 85.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 PM CDT. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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