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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  39A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002

...LILI HAMMERING THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND BEARING DOWN ON WESTERN 
CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE 
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS OVER 
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA OR ABOUT 60 
MILES...95 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO FRANCES IN WESTERN CUBA.  

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME FURTHER 
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE CENTER 
SHOULD PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
AND LILI COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. PUNTA DEL ESTE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH RECENTLY 
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 108 MPH...173 KM/HR...WHILE LA FE ON THE 
ILSE OF YOUTH REPORTED 63 MPH...101 KM/HR...SUSTAINED WINDS.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS  971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH 
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN 
CUBA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...21.6 N... 83.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH/AVILA
 
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