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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  38A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2002

...STRENGTHENING LILI HEADED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN 
CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. 
THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.2 WEST OR ABOUT
60 MILES...100 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER
THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN A FEW HOURS AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
LILI COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF  975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
 
A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH 
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN 
CUBA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...21.0 N... 82.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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