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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
...LILI GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235
KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF LILI
WOULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM A HAM RADIO OPERATOR ON CAYMAN BRAC
INDICATE SOME DAMAGE OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND IN THE FORM OF DOWNED
TREES...POWER LINES...AND POWER POLES. ALSO...SEVERAL HOMES
EXPERIENCED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WAS ALSO
REPORTED.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA ON TUESDAY.
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
PATH OF LILI.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...20.4 N... 81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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