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TROPICAL STORM LILI ADVISORY NUMBER  51
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2002

...LILI WEAKENING RAPIDLY...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LILI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  92.0 WEST OR 
ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF MONROE LOUISIANA.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE 
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND LILI WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND 
MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...32.4 N... 92.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 AM CDT...FRIDAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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