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HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2002

...LILI BECOMES MAJOR HURRICANE...CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE GULF COAST...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TEXAS TO 
HIGH ISLAND...AND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE 
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.9 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES LILI A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON 
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES FROM THE 
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 
MILES.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER 
IS  953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY 
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.  THIS
SURGE COULD SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TRACK OF LILI.
 
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 88.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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