HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002

...LILI STRIKING WESTERN CUBA...INTENSIFIES FURTHER...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS
IN THESE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LILI.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 
35 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO FRANCES IN WESTERN CUBA.  THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA
CUBA.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... 
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE 
CENTER OF LILI ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR  90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LILI COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS  971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH 
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN 
CUBA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...21.8 N... 83.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
NNNN