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HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002

...LILI NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.  THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF CUBA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...16 KM
SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME FURTHER 
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE CENTER 
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
LILI COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH 
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN 
CUBA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N... 82.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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