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HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002

...LILI CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED... TAKING AIM ON THE
ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN CUBA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND 
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR THE REST OF CUBA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. 
HOWEVER...THESE WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY 
MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.5 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES...175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... 
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE 
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE 
CENTER OF LILI SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH TUESDAY 
MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
LILI COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER 
THE ISLE OF YOUTH OR WESTERN CUBA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE 
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS  978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH 
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN 
CUBA ON TUESDAY.
 
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN CUBA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
PATH OF LILI.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...20.7 N... 81.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT...TUESDAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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