[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
 
...CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CAYMANS...WESTERN CUBA NEXT TARGET...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL 
STORM WATCH FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESSO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF CUBA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...280
KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME 
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE EXPECTED 
TRACK OF LILI WOULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH 
TUESDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN CUBA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
PATH OF LILI.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.1 N... 80.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
NNNN


Webmaster