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HURRICANE ISIDORE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002

...ISIDORE NEARLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...COULD 
BE COME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE TODAY... 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST 
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING 
THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA 
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 
60 MILES...100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST 
TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 75 MILES...120 
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
ISIDORE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS 
EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THIS 
TRACK...THE EYE OF ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ON 
THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN 
YUCATAN BY THIS EVENING AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO SOUTH WOULD BRING 
THE EYE AND THE MOST INTENSE WINDS ONSHORE.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AND ISIDORE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR 
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 T0 15 INCHES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE 
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...ALONG 
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TODAY. 

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL 
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY ALONG THE NORTH COAST 
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...21.9 N... 86.1 W.  MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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