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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN SEP 15 2002

...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  67.2 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...140 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
BONAIRE IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH ...35
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  ON THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER
THE ISLANDS OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.  BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE 
DEPRESSION AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE 
SYSTEM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.5 N... 67.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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