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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON AUG 05 2002

...BERTHA MEANDERING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST AND
SOUTH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER
THIS MORNING.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A SLOW 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ON THIS 
TRACK THE BROAD CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A FEW
SQUALLS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES NORTHEAST 
OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE INLAND FLOODING.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...
LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. 
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM ALABAMA EASTWARD TO THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA 
AND ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...29.8 N...  89.9 W.  MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...  40 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
  
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