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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
23.5N 78.0W 45 X 1 X 46 MIAMI FL 2 2 X X 4
26.0N 75.5W 5 20 X X 25 W PALM BEACH FL 1 1 1 X 3
29.0N 72.5W X 5 11 1 17 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 1 2
MWCG 193N 814W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 2 3
MUGM 200N 751W X 1 1 X 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2
MUCM 214N 779W 31 X X X 31 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2
MUCF 221N 805W 64 1 X X 65 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2
MUSN 216N 826W 20 X X X 20 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2
MUHA 230N 824W 2 X X X 2 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 4 4
MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 1 2 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3
MYMM 224N 730W X 2 4 X 6 NANTUCKET MA X X X 5 5
MYSM 241N 745W 2 16 1 X 19 HYANNIS MA X X X 4 4
MYEG 235N 758W 16 9 X X 25 BOSTON MA X X X 3 3
MYAK 241N 776W 39 1 X X 40 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2
MYNN 251N 775W 27 5 X X 32 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 2 2
MYGF 266N 787W 3 9 X X 12 EASTPORT ME X X X 2 2
BERMUDA X X X 9 9 YARMOUTH NS X X X 3 3
MARATHON FL 3 1 X X 4 HALIFAX NS X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU
C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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