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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
21.7N 79.2W 52 X X X 52 COCOA BEACH FL X 1 1 X 2
24.6N 76.7W 1 26 3 X 30 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 1 2
29.5N 72.3W X X 14 4 18 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 2 3
MKJS 185N 779W 1 1 X X 2 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 3 3
MWCG 193N 814W 91 X X X 91 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3
MUGM 200N 751W X 2 1 X 3 NANTUCKET MA X X X 5 5
MUCM 214N 779W 33 4 X X 37 HYANNIS MA X X X 4 4
MUCF 221N 805W 44 1 X X 45 BOSTON MA X X X 3 3
MUSN 216N 826W 14 2 X X 16 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2
MUHA 230N 824W 4 3 X X 7 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 3 3
MYMM 224N 730W X 2 4 X 6 EASTPORT ME X X X 4 4
MYSM 241N 745W X 13 9 X 22 ST JOHN NB X X X 4 4
MYEG 235N 758W 2 21 4 X 27 MONCTON NB X X X 3 3
MYAK 241N 776W 6 25 1 X 32 YARMOUTH NS X X X 5 5
MYNN 251N 775W 1 25 3 X 29 HALIFAX NS X X X 5 5
MYGF 266N 787W X 12 5 X 17 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 4 4
BERMUDA X X X 8 8 SYDNEY NS X X X 3 3
MARATHON FL 1 8 1 X 10 EDDY POINT NS X X X 3 3
MIAMI FL X 9 1 X 10 KEY WEST FL X 5 X X 5
W PALM BEACH FL X 5 2 X 7 MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 X X 2
FT PIERCE FL X 2 2 X 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED
C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU
D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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