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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
31.8N 91.5W 48 3 X X 51 ST JOHN NB X X X 3 3
35.2N 89.5W 1 36 4 X 41 MONCTON NB X X X 2 2
39.7N 84.8W X X 20 4 24 YARMOUTH NS X X X 3 3
NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2 HALIFAX NS X X X 2 2
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 4 4 PENSACOLA FL X 2 X X 2
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 7 7 MOBILE AL 3 8 X X 11
NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 8 8 GULFPORT MS 14 8 X X 22
MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 7 7 BURAS LA 27 1 X X 28
PROVIDENCE RI X X X 7 7 NEW ORLEANS LA 47 X X X 47
NANTUCKET MA X X X 5 5 NEW IBERIA LA 68 X X X 68
HYANNIS MA X X X 6 6 PORT ARTHUR TX 16 X X X 16
BOSTON MA X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W 6 1 X X 7
PORTLAND ME X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 91W 99 X X X 99
BAR HARBOR ME X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 93W 27 X X X 27
EASTPORT ME X X X 4 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7PM THU TO 7AM FRI
C FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI
D FROM 7PM FRI TO 7PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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