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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
29.8N 92.3W 40 X X X 40 YARMOUTH NS X X X 2 2
32.2N 91.9W 8 21 4 X 33 PENSACOLA FL X 2 4 X 6
36.1N 89.0W X X 20 5 25 MOBILE AL X 7 7 X 14
NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 GULFPORT MS 3 11 5 X 19
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 5 5 BURAS LA 13 6 1 X 20
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 6 6 NEW ORLEANS LA 17 7 1 X 25
NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 7 7 NEW IBERIA LA 36 1 X X 37
MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 5 5 PORT ARTHUR TX 29 2 X X 31
PROVIDENCE RI X X X 5 5 GALVESTON TX 17 2 X X 19
NANTUCKET MA X X X 4 4 FREEPORT TX 7 2 X X 9
HYANNIS MA X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 87W X 1 2 X 3
BOSTON MA X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 89W 11 3 X X 14
PORTLAND ME X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 91W 60 X X X 60
BAR HARBOR ME X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 93W 43 X X X 43
EASTPORT ME X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 95W 6 1 X X 7
ST JOHN NB X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI
C FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI
D FROM 1PM FRI TO 1PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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