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HURRICANE LILI SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2002
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  89.4 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT SAT OCT  5 2002
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
28.1N  92.1W      37  1  X  X 38   MOBILE AL          X  4  9  2 15
30.4N  92.5W       9 20  1  X 30   GULFPORT MS        1  9  7  1 18
33.5N  91.0W       X  4 19  2 25   BURAS LA           8  9  2  1 20
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  3  3   NEW ORLEANS LA     7 13  3  X 23
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3   NEW IBERIA LA     14 15  X  X 29
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  3  3   PORT ARTHUR TX    10 17  X  X 27
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2   GALVESTON TX      10 12  X  X 22
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        6 11  X  X 17
NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  3  3   PORT O CONNOR TX   2  5  1  X  8
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  2  2
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W       X  1  3  1  5
NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W      15  2  X  X 17
ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 91W      38  X  X  X 38
APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  1  2  3   GULF 28N 93W      33  1  X  X 34
PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  1  3  4   GULF 28N 95W      11  6  X  X 17
PENSACOLA FL       X  1  5  4 10   GULF 27N 96W       2  2  1  X  5
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM THU TO  7PM THU
C FROM  7PM THU TO  7AM FRI
D FROM  7AM FRI TO  7AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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