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HURRICANE LILI SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
28.1N 92.1W 37 1 X X 38 MOBILE AL X 4 9 2 15
30.4N 92.5W 9 20 1 X 30 GULFPORT MS 1 9 7 1 18
33.5N 91.0W X 4 19 2 25 BURAS LA 8 9 2 1 20
SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 NEW ORLEANS LA 7 13 3 X 23
CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 NEW IBERIA LA 14 15 X X 29
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3 PORT ARTHUR TX 10 17 X X 27
WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX 10 12 X X 22
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX 6 11 X X 17
NORFOLK VA X X X 3 3 PORT O CONNOR TX 2 5 1 X 8
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X 1 3 1 5
NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W 15 2 X X 17
ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W 38 X X X 38
APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 28N 93W 33 1 X X 34
PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 95W 11 6 X X 17
PENSACOLA FL X 1 5 4 10 GULF 27N 96W 2 2 1 X 5
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM THU TO 7PM THU
C FROM 7PM THU TO 7AM FRI
D FROM 7AM FRI TO 7AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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