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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
27.0N 91.5W 40 X X X 40 PORT ARTHUR TX X 22 2 1 25
29.2N 92.5W 2 27 X 1 30 GALVESTON TX X 19 2 X 21
31.5N 92.0W X 11 11 1 23 FREEPORT TX X 15 2 X 17
SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X 7 2 1 10
ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 1 1 X 2
APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2
PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 29N 87W X 1 3 3 7
PENSACOLA FL X 1 4 6 11 GULF 28N 89W 13 5 X 1 19
MOBILE AL X 2 8 4 14 GULF 28N 91W 26 6 X X 32
GULFPORT MS X 7 7 2 16 GULF 28N 93W 16 15 X X 31
BURAS LA 2 13 3 X 18 GULF 28N 95W 2 15 X 1 18
NEW ORLEANS LA X 17 3 1 21 GULF 27N 96W 1 4 1 1 7
NEW IBERIA LA X 24 2 X 26
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU
C FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI
D FROM 1AM FRI TO 1AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER PASCH
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