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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
23.4N 86.9W 45 X X X 45 NEW IBERIA LA X X 5 12 17
25.0N 89.5W 2 26 X X 28 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 3 13 16
26.7N 91.7W X 8 12 1 21 GALVESTON TX X X 4 11 15
MUCF 221N 805W 2 X X X 2 FREEPORT TX X X 3 11 14
MUSN 216N 826W 99 X X X 99 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 2 9 11
MUHA 230N 824W 48 X X X 48 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 7 8
MUAN 219N 850W 61 X X X 61 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 3 4
MMCZ 205N 869W 2 X X X 2 GULF 29N 85W X 1 2 2 5
ST MARKS FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 87W X 1 7 4 12
APALACHICOLA FL X X 2 3 5 GULF 28N 89W X 7 11 1 19
PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 4 6 GULF 28N 91W X 3 15 2 20
PENSACOLA FL X X 2 8 10 GULF 28N 93W X 1 13 4 18
MOBILE AL X X 3 9 12 GULF 28N 95W X X 7 7 14
GULFPORT MS X X 4 10 14 GULF 27N 96W X X 5 5 10
BURAS LA X X 11 5 16 GULF 25N 96W X X 2 2 4
NEW ORLEANS LA X X 7 9 16
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER PASCH
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