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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.7 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT FRI OCT  4 2002
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
23.4N  86.9W      45  X  X  X 45   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  5 12 17
25.0N  89.5W       2 26  X  X 28   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  3 13 16
26.7N  91.7W       X  8 12  1 21   GALVESTON TX       X  X  4 11 15
MUCF 221N 805W     2  X  X  X  2   FREEPORT TX        X  X  3 11 14
MUSN 216N 826W    99  X  X  X 99   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  2  9 11
MUHA 230N 824W    48  X  X  X 48   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  1  7  8
MUAN 219N 850W    61  X  X  X 61   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  1  3  4
MMCZ 205N 869W     2  X  X  X  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  1  2  2  5
ST MARKS FL        X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  1  7  4 12
APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  2  3  5   GULF 28N 89W       X  7 11  1 19
PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  2  4  6   GULF 28N 91W       X  3 15  2 20
PENSACOLA FL       X  X  2  8 10   GULF 28N 93W       X  1 13  4 18
MOBILE AL          X  X  3  9 12   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  7  7 14
GULFPORT MS        X  X  4 10 14   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  5  5 10
BURAS LA           X  X 11  5 16   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  2  2  4
NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  7  9 16
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
C FROM  2PM WED TO  2AM THU
D FROM  2AM THU TO  2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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