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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU OCT 3 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.0N 84.0W 50 X X X 50 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6
23.3N 86.4W 4 31 X X 35 MOBILE AL X X X 7 7
24.5N 89.0W X 8 16 1 25 GULFPORT MS X X X 9 9
MWCG 193N 814W 10 X X X 10 BURAS LA X X 1 11 12
MUCF 221N 805W 48 X X 1 49 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 11 11
MUSN 216N 826W 65 X X X 65 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 12 12
MUHA 230N 824W 46 X X X 46 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 12 12
MUAN 219N 850W 37 3 X X 40 GALVESTON TX X X X 12 12
MMCZ 205N 869W 2 5 X 1 8 FREEPORT TX X X X 12 12
MMMD 210N 897W X 1 1 1 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 10 10
MARATHON FL 3 2 X X 5 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 8 8
KEY WEST FL 10 4 1 X 15 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 6 6
MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 1 1 4 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 5 6
FT MYERS FL X 1 1 1 3 GULF 29N 87W X X 2 8 10
VENICE FL X 1 1 2 4 GULF 28N 89W X X 6 10 16
TAMPA FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 91W X X 3 14 17
CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 14 15
ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 95W X X X 13 13
APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 GULF 27N 96W X X X 10 10
PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 GULF 25N 96W X X X 7 7
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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