[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIASPFAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.7 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT THU OCT  3 2002
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
22.0N  84.0W      50  X  X  X 50   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  6  6
23.3N  86.4W       4 31  X  X 35   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  7  7
24.5N  89.0W       X  8 16  1 25   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  9  9
MWCG 193N 814W    10  X  X  X 10   BURAS LA           X  X  1 11 12
MUCF 221N 805W    48  X  X  1 49   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X 11 11
MUSN 216N 826W    65  X  X  X 65   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X 12 12
MUHA 230N 824W    46  X  X  X 46   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X 12 12
MUAN 219N 850W    37  3  X  X 40   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X 12 12
MMCZ 205N 869W     2  5  X  1  8   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X 12 12
MMMD 210N 897W     X  1  1  1  3   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X 10 10
MARATHON FL        3  2  X  X  5   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  X  8  8
KEY WEST FL       10  4  1  X 15   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  X  6  6
MARCO ISLAND FL    X  2  1  1  4   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  1  5  6
FT MYERS FL        X  1  1  1  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  2  8 10
VENICE FL          X  1  1  2  4   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  6 10 16
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  1  2   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  3 14 17
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  1 14 15
ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X 13 13
APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  4  4   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X 10 10
PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  4  4   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  X  7  7
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
C FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
D FROM  2PM WED TO  2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
NNNN


Webmaster